(AP) – The Strait of Hormuz — a narrow, ancient waterway is once again at the center of a very real global showdown. And Iran’s leaders believe their own victory won’t take millennia. In fact, they think it’s close at hand.
Tehran is betting that sustained military pressure will eventually force the United States to accept Iranian control over one of the world’s most critical energy arteries. Iranian officials have made no secret of their belief that time is on their side. They point to diminishing U.S. stockpiles of advanced missile interceptors, the political strain of an unpopular war, and the economic pain Americans feel every day as gas prices rise while the strait remains largely closed. They know that any attempt to reopen the waterway by force could be costly. And they know their Houthi allies in Yemen could widen the conflict and threaten yet another global trade route.
By Iran’s logic, President Donald Trump will eventually have no choice but to capitulate. But it’s strategy carries enormous risks — and the White House is making sure Tehran understands that.
President Trump has repeatedly pointed to U.S. strikes that have decimated Iran’s top military leadership, crippled its navy, and severely damaged its air force. He alternates between warning of further escalation and insisting that diplomatic talks are progressing. Iran’s own economy is buckling under the weight of a U.S. blockade, and the regime is still shaken by mass protests that erupted just months ago. Those demonstrations, driven by frustration with economic hardship and political repression, remain a reminder that Iran’s rulers are not invincible.
And Iran’s leaders need only look at how Trump’s “short‑term excursion” into the Middle East has evolved — a mission that has stretched far longer than expected — to understand that wars rarely follow the script.
Still, Tehran believes it is close to a major breakthrough. Iranian officials say they are nearing a deal with Oman to jointly manage the Strait of Hormuz, which lies between the two nations. But the deal would require the United States to lift its blockade — meaning that even without direct negotiations, President Trump would have to sign off.
A June cease-fire between the United States and Iran had made clear that American sanctions would only be fully lifted if Tehran agreed to a final nuclear deal. U.S. officials have also maintained that Iran would gain access to its frozen assets only after giving up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
The latest statement from Iranian security chief Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr comes as Iran and Oman continue talks over future control of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow but critical waterway between the two nations. Iran shut down the strait earlier this year, saying it was retaliating for attacks carried out by the United States and Israel.
The Trump administration has repeated its position since the start of negotiations: sanctions stay in place until Iran commits to de‑nuclearization — and any agreement would be kept only as long as absolutely necessary.
For now, Iran believes it holds the cards. But the United States insists it will not allow a hostile regime to control the world’s energy lifeline. And the standoff at the Strait of Hormuz continues.
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